Menu labelling
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This scenario models a statutory menu labelling policy implemented in restaurants and other food 
service establishments (e.g., fast food outlets). This policy is 
currently implemented in very few OECD countries, for example in the United States and Australia, 
so it could be the next major policy action after the full roll-out of a food labelling policy. 
The implementation of this action would also make it compulsory to provide contextual information 
on the menus, such as recommended daily calorie intake, or interpretive information such as a 
traffic light system or PACE (physical activity calorie equivalent) labels that indicate the 
number of minutes of exercise needed to burn off the calories consumed. 

Based on the evidence produced by :cite:p:`Sinclair2014`, menu labelling with contextual 
or interpretive information is expected to lead to a reduction in the calories consumed (per purchase) 
of about 81 kcal. This number is further converted into a change in BMI using the same methodology 
as for the food labelling intervention, based on :cite:p:`Hall2011a`. Maximum reduction in calories 
(and BMI) is assumed one year following the beginning of the intervention, which approximately 
corresponds to 100 days of cumulative exposure, assuming people eat out about two times a week. 
Once reduced, the BMI is modelled to continue on a parallel lower trajectory.

The minimum eligibility age is set at five years old, as children can also be affected via their 
parents when they eat out together. Among those eligible, it is assumed that, across countries, 
at least 80% of the population occasionally have meals in restaurants or fast food places 
potentially targeted by this policy. For example, previous evidence found that four out of 
five Italians eat out at least two times a week :cite:p:`FondazioneCensis2010`. In the United 
Kingdom, a survey found that 78% of people eat out once a month, or more often :cite:p:`Worsfold2006`. 
Finally, in line with the food labelling intervention assumption, it is assumed that about 15% of 
the population read and act upon menu labelling information. Thus, about 12% of those eligible are 
assumed to be exposed to this intervention :cite:p:`Grunert2010`.  

The intervention programme costs include governmental expenses on policy administration, planning 
and enforcement in the form of food inspections, and varies between USD PPP 1.15 and USD PPP 
1.30 per capita annually across the countries included in the analysis. Costs do not account 
for the additional expenditure associated with designing and printing menu labels and for the 
nutritional analysis costs, likely to be borne by the private sector. For example,
the cost of the nutritional analysis to support the implementation of food labelling 
was estimated to be about USD 660 per food item in the United States. There can also be some 
installation costs to replace the menu boards, estimated to be about USD 550 in the United States 
:cite:p:`FoodandDrugAdministration2014`.