Welcome to SPHeP-NCDs’s documentation!

Welcome to SPHeP-NCDs’s documentation! A project from the OECD Public Health Team.

The OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for NCDs (SPHeP-NCDs) model is an advanced systems modelling tool for public health policy and strategic planning. The model is used to predict the health and economic outcomes of the population of a country or a region up to 2050. The model consolidates previous OECD modelling work into a single platform to produce a comprehensive set of key behavioural and physiological risk factors (e.g. obesity, physical activity, blood pressure, etc) and their associated NCDs (see modelling_burden_of_disease:). The model covers 52 countries. These countries include OECD countries, G20 countries, EU28 countries, and OECD accession and selected partner countries: Brazil (also a G20 country), China (also a G20 country), Colombia, Costa Rica, India (also a G20 country), Indonesia (also a G20 country), Peru and South Africa (also a G20 country).

For each of the 52 countries, the model uses demographic and risk factor characteristics by age and gender-specific population groups from international databases (see Demographic module & Risk factors). These inputs are used to generate synthetic populations, in which individuals are assigned demographic characteristics and risk factor profiles. Based on these characteristics, individuals have a certain risk of developing a disease each year. These relative risks are based on the Global Burden of Disease study. For each year, a cross-sectional representation of the population can be obtained, to calculate health status indicators such as life expectancy, disease prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using disability weights (see Calculating disability weights). Health care costs of disease treatment are estimated based on a per-case annual cost, which is extrapolated from national health-related expenditure data. The additional cost of multimorbidity is also calculated and applied (see Healthcare costs). The labour market module uses relative risks to relate disease status to the risk of absenteeism, presenteeism, early retirement and employment. These changes in productivity and labour market participation are costed based on a human capital approach, using national average wages to calculate lost labour market outputs (see Labour market module)

Modelling the burden of disease

Indices and tables

Disclaimer:

  • This website is a work-in-progress. It will be updated as new modules are developed as well as in response to user feedback.

  • The OECD is not liable for external research using information on this site.

  • If information on this site conflicts with the existing literature (including OECD documents), please refer to the latter.