7.3.2. Menu labelling¶
This scenario models a statutory menu labelling policy implemented in restaurants and other food service establishments (e.g., fast food outlets). This policy is currently implemented in very few OECD countries, for example in the United States and Australia, so it could be the next major policy action after the full roll-out of a food labelling policy. The implementation of this action would also make it compulsory to provide contextual information on the menus, such as recommended daily calorie intake, or interpretive information such as a traffic light system or PACE (physical activity calorie equivalent) labels that indicate the number of minutes of exercise needed to burn off the calories consumed.
Based on the evidence produced by [Sinclair, Cooper and Mansfield, 2014 [55]], menu labelling with contextual or interpretive information is expected to lead to a reduction in the calories consumed (per purchase) of about 81 kcal. This number is further converted into a change in BMI using the same methodology as for the food labelling intervention, based on [Hall et al., 2011 [29]]. Maximum reduction in calories (and BMI) is assumed one year following the beginning of the intervention, which approximately corresponds to 100 days of cumulative exposure, assuming people eat out about two times a week. Once reduced, the BMI is modelled to continue on a parallel lower trajectory.
The minimum eligibility age is set at five years old, as children can also be affected via their parents when they eat out together. Among those eligible, it is assumed that, across countries, at least 80% of the population occasionally have meals in restaurants or fast food places potentially targeted by this policy. For example, previous evidence found that four out of five Italians eat out at least two times a week [Fondazione Censis and Coldiretti, 2010 [70]]. In the United Kingdom, a survey found that 78% of people eat out once a month, or more often [Worsfold, 2006 [65]]. Finally, in line with the food labelling intervention assumption, it is assumed that about 15% of the population read and act upon menu labelling information. Thus, about 12% of those eligible are assumed to be exposed to this intervention [Grunert et al., 2010 [25]].
The intervention programme costs include governmental expenses on policy administration, planning and enforcement in the form of food inspections, and varies between USD PPP 1.15 and USD PPP 1.30 per capita annually across the countries included in the analysis. Costs do not account for the additional expenditure associated with designing and printing menu labels and for the nutritional analysis costs, likely to be borne by the private sector. For example, the cost of the nutritional analysis to support the implementation of food labelling was estimated to be about USD 660 per food item in the United States. There can also be some installation costs to replace the menu boards, estimated to be about USD 550 in the United States [Food and Drug Administration, 2014 [71]].